The Certainty Of Chance
Probabilities...possibilities?
Why do so many people do the lottery? Because someone "has" to win it. It's just not very likely it will be you.
However anything that has a possibility of happening will in theory happen eventually. I am sure we have all heard the example oft quoted that give let an infinite number of monkeys type away randomly on a keyboard infinitely and one of them will eventually come up with the complete works of Shakespeare. I can't even begin to calculate the possibility of how long this would take but it seems highly unlikely to me - astronomical odds in fact.
Going back to the lottery, by comparison it's a much more achievable aim - the actual odds of scooping the jackpot are around 13 million to one. Let's say you have a quid in each of Wednesday's and Saturday's draws. By my calculations if you live another 125,000 years approximately, chances are you would be more likely to win than not. To condense that down - if you live another 125 years you've got a 0.1% chance. Not massively inspiring but chances are you'll still cash in before the monkeys finish.
Anyway - the point is that no matter how small the likelihood of something happening it's bound to eventually happen. If you were to take a commerical airline flight twice a week while you were waiting for your numbers to come up - you'd be more likely to crash and burn first - though not by much - it should take just 91,000 years.
Anyway, all of this won't be of a surprise to anyone. What I though might be of more interest if I were to use my advanced knowledge of statistics to calculate the odds of some real life events occurring in my own life. Remember, no matter how unlikely these may seem, my "certainty of chance" theorem means they must all happen sooner than later. In fact - it is statistically more likely than not that the following 10 unlikely seeming events will happen in my life on or before the dates listed below.
I wear a suit - 19th October 2013
I go for a night out in the pub and don't get hit on by some monster - 4th June 2014
I win an online poker tournament - 12th March 2016
Funky Mike attends one of my karaoke nights and doesn't take the piss out of me - 4th April 2017
I go to the gym - 4th July 2018
I eat a salad - 26th August 2019
I finally get to drive a proper racing car around Silverstone - 16th February 2020 (a 50th birthday gift hint hint).
Spider offers to buy me a drink - 31st July 2024
I become Mayor of Bicester due to my outstanding commitments to the community - 3rd February 2031
I wake up in the Tardis strapped to a bed with Karen Gillan (in police outfit), Billie Piper and that Welsh bit out of Torchwood (not Catherine Tate though thank goodness) telling me that I'm the last human male in the universe and they need my help to repopulate the species - 31st December 1999999999999999999999999999999999...oh hang on - suddenly that whole monkey/ Shakespeare thing is starting to look quite likely by comparison! Also I now need to think of a way to stop my wife from reading this! lol x
I don't think I can think of anything more improbable than that!!!
If you have enjoyed reading this blog, please take a look at my books on Amazon (Paperback & Kindle), where you can read lots more of the same! Click here.
Jason xx
Why do so many people do the lottery? Because someone "has" to win it. It's just not very likely it will be you.
However anything that has a possibility of happening will in theory happen eventually. I am sure we have all heard the example oft quoted that give let an infinite number of monkeys type away randomly on a keyboard infinitely and one of them will eventually come up with the complete works of Shakespeare. I can't even begin to calculate the possibility of how long this would take but it seems highly unlikely to me - astronomical odds in fact.
| Alas, poor Yarik..."no you stupid monkey you've spelt it wrong - start again" |
Going back to the lottery, by comparison it's a much more achievable aim - the actual odds of scooping the jackpot are around 13 million to one. Let's say you have a quid in each of Wednesday's and Saturday's draws. By my calculations if you live another 125,000 years approximately, chances are you would be more likely to win than not. To condense that down - if you live another 125 years you've got a 0.1% chance. Not massively inspiring but chances are you'll still cash in before the monkeys finish.
Anyway - the point is that no matter how small the likelihood of something happening it's bound to eventually happen. If you were to take a commerical airline flight twice a week while you were waiting for your numbers to come up - you'd be more likely to crash and burn first - though not by much - it should take just 91,000 years.
Anyway, all of this won't be of a surprise to anyone. What I though might be of more interest if I were to use my advanced knowledge of statistics to calculate the odds of some real life events occurring in my own life. Remember, no matter how unlikely these may seem, my "certainty of chance" theorem means they must all happen sooner than later. In fact - it is statistically more likely than not that the following 10 unlikely seeming events will happen in my life on or before the dates listed below.
I wear a suit - 19th October 2013
 |
| Only happens on "VERY" special occasions! |
I go for a night out in the pub and don't get hit on by some monster - 4th June 2014
I win an online poker tournament - 12th March 2016
Funky Mike attends one of my karaoke nights and doesn't take the piss out of me - 4th April 2017
I go to the gym - 4th July 2018
I eat a salad - 26th August 2019
| Seriously...? By 2019? Come off it... |
I finally get to drive a proper racing car around Silverstone - 16th February 2020 (a 50th birthday gift hint hint).
 |
| My lifelong dream... |
Spider offers to buy me a drink - 31st July 2024
I become Mayor of Bicester due to my outstanding commitments to the community - 3rd February 2031
I wake up in the Tardis strapped to a bed with Karen Gillan (in police outfit), Billie Piper and that Welsh bit out of Torchwood (not Catherine Tate though thank goodness) telling me that I'm the last human male in the universe and they need my help to repopulate the species - 31st December 1999999999999999999999999999999999...oh hang on - suddenly that whole monkey/ Shakespeare thing is starting to look quite likely by comparison! Also I now need to think of a way to stop my wife from reading this! lol x
I don't think I can think of anything more improbable than that!!!
If you have enjoyed reading this blog, please take a look at my books on Amazon (Paperback & Kindle), where you can read lots more of the same! Click here.
Jason xx
Welcome back mr ayres!! Hilarious x
ReplyDeleteThank-you! I was going to put a bit after the 91,000 years line about "unless Captain SW is in charge and then it would be a lot less" lol but I forgot. Also I am sure eagle eyed you noted I got the suit wearing date spot on.
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