World turns, things change.

I've been thinking a lot about the whole business of chains of retailers going bust, independent shops closing down, not just in Bicester but across the country if not the world, and I have come to the conclusion that efforts made by us to fight it are ultimately doomed to failure.

Not a pessimistic outlook, just a realistic one. The fact of the matter is, the world is constantly evolving, new and more efficient ways are found of doing things, and the old ways disappear.

Not immediately, of course. Every new technology that comes along has its early adopters but is initially both unproven and expensive. These things take time. Eventually the new technology is so much more efficient and economical than the old that it takes over. Gradually the population embraces the new thing, whatever it is. This can take 5, 10, 20, maybe even 50 years but eventually the transformation is complete, except for a few  die hard fans and a "niche" market.

In order to understand what is going to happen in the future, we need to look to the past. Here's a few examples.

In the 19th century everyone rode horses, they pulled carriages, other than railways which themselves hadn't been around long, they were the key way of getting around. Then someone invented the car. For the first few years, the car was an expensive toy, but every year there were more and more on the road and less and less horses. Now whilst you might see the odd horse out on the road, they are no longer used as a form of transport. And the infrastructure of how our houses are built and roads are now made means that even if we wanted to keep one as our main mode of transport it would be very difficult.

"These fancy motor buses are a flash in the pan,
you'll never beat good old horse power"

A related topic - it's no random act of genealogy that our main English surname is "Smith". Because with all those horses around back then, Blacksmiths were one of the most common trades. Now of course, blacksmiths still exist, but only a tiny fraction of the number we once had. What happened to all those blacksmiths, well presumably they had to find something else to do.

You want more examples? What about steam trains? Rail enthusiasts love them and there are still a few small steam train lines operating, predominantly for tourist purposes. But as a mainstream concern they long since were consigned to history, replaced by cleaner, cheaper, more efficient technology.

Pubs? Taverns? Used to be bursting at the seams but there was nowhere else to get a drink in those days and you certainly couldn't pop into Tesco's for a 24 slab of Stella back then. On the same note, all those real ale enthusiasts bemoan the "evils of lager" for increasingly consigning our once traditional brews to niche status - but at least they should be grateful they still exist at all in this world where tastes are constantly changing.

"Your beer's too expensive Landlord!"
"Well get yourself down to Tesco then. When it opens in 100 years time"

Anyway, the point of all this is that anyone who naively expects the world to stay just the way it is, needs to look back at the last century or so at the massive changes. And if you look at the pace at which change takes place, it's getting faster and faster. I would argue that more has changed in the last 100 years than in the previous 1000, and more changed in that 1000 than in the previous 10,000. Therefore I would say that the world will be completely unrecognisable to us in 100 years time. Though if you do go into a pub then (if they still exist) you might get lucky and find some old git in the corner reminiscing though he's not likely to be going on about the golden age of steam and when they made pints of foaming Auld Codger. More likely complaining that Jupiter has been completely ruined as a holiday destination since the tourists took it over and how these new fangled warp drives will never replace good old fashioned nuclear power.

Anyway, how does this all relate to shops and the town centres? Well quite honestly I think the whole lot is doomed and we are fooling ourselves pretending otherwise. The only reason they have survived up until now is that there is a dwindling pool of people keeping them going who don't use the internet to shop or do any other form of activity. But the generation coming through now know no different. Sadly granny who goes to Bicester Toy Store to buy her grandson his birthday present won't be with us in 20 years time. Grandson himself may well never have shopped anywhere else other than the internet. And technology will have moved on again in ways we cannot even perceive - but probably to the extent you will be able to get anything you want, anytime you want, pretty much instantly.

The internet is probably the biggest thing to happen since the invention of the motor car, and it has happened so quickly. Hardly anyone had heard of it 20 years ago and now the vast majority of us have access to it, even if we do not all use it. Yet. Look how sophisticated it is now. What will it be like in another 20 years? Who knows how far it could go?

Morning Dave, it's happy hour in 1011011, fancy a pint?

Banks? Estate Agents? Betting shops? Insurance companies? Travel Agents? Why do they need to spend money heating and lighting and paying rent on premises not to mention employing staff when it will be possible to do anything you can do in them online. I'll take betting as an example as it is something I know a bit about. Already I can place any bet I want without leaving this computer, at better odds, and terms than I can in any betting shop so what possible reason could I ever have for wanting to visit a betting shop? Over time more and more people will come to think this way and that will be it - bye bye betting shops, at least in their current forms. Same comments apply to Travel Agents. Why do we want to queue to sit and talk to an assistant in a busy shop when we can sit here for hours and browse at our lesiure using trip advisor and various other guides to help us.

Jessops and Comet are just two recent examples, but their closure will only exacerbate the problem as more people move to the internet. The remaining retailers will continue to scrap it out for the remaining scraps, but it's going to get increasingly desperate, they will be like sharks in a lake fighting over a diminishing food supply.

Not all retailers will disappear from our High Streets. People will always want to socialise so there will always be room for a few pubs, cafes, and sandwich shops. I think supermarkets will continue to thrive as they can fill in the gaps left by others, but they will increasingly become large one stop destinations like Asda in Bletchley or the new Tesco Extra being built outside Bicester.

I think entertainment is key - people will go places to be entertained. Hence why cinema is still with us. I bet plenty of people predicted that would die when TV came along, but it hasn't followed that trend? Why? Because going to the cinema is an event and an experience. Just like going to a pub. We are happy to pay £3+ for a pint when we could get 4 cans for that in Tesco so it can't all be about price.

But it's harder for retailers - they are not really offering an entertainment experience. I just cannot see independent stores like the Toy Shop, Trysports, Barstows, Wadleys, the Bookshop existing in 50 years time. It's sad but true. Yes they may be alright for another 5 years, maybe even 20, but eventually their owners will admit defeat and give up the unequal struggle. Likewise chains such as Dixons, WHSmith, all the Travel Agents, and all the others I have mentioned. What need is there for them? If the likes of Thomas Cook and the others have any vision at all they will be working towards becoming a totally online business as soon as they can, because if they bury their heads in the sand and don't move with the times they'll go the same way as all the others. Bye bye Thomas Cook.

And what about all their poor staff, you cry? They will lose their jobs. Well so did all the Blacksmiths and all those others throughout history, but other opportunities and careers open up. For example, there weren't many people employed in the IT industry 100 years ago, and how many are there now?

For those who think I'm spreading doom and gloom, I'm certainly not writing this with that intention at all, I am being realistic and forward thinking. You cannot fight change as all those people who've made comments throughout the ages such as "This new fangled electricity will never catch on" have discovered. The future is not to be feared - it's an exciting new unexplored country and we should go forward with enthusiasm and be a part of writing it.

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Jason xx